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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.