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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.