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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."